NWP versus DLWP for 91W

91W is an interesting case. For the cycle initialized at 2026-09-22T12, most NWP models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC) predict that it will move across Taiwan or even more southward. NASA’s GEOS-FP initialized at 2026-09-22T00 also supports this forecast. The DLWP models AIFS and Google’s WeatherNext-Cyclone predict it will deviate in front of Taiwan and move northward. The AIGFS predicts that it will stay around Taiwan for a while and then move southward.

For my 60km MPAS run, its track follows the NWP model groups. Let us see what happens in 1 week.